Sent to you by Jay via Google Reader:
New York state experienced a shocking drop in manufacturing. Economists are, once again, surprised:
New York state manufacturing unexpectedly plunged in November, the first contraction since July 2009 when the US economy exited recession, official data showed Monday.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported its manufacturing activity index dropped to minus 11.1 points in November, from a positive 15.7 points in the previous month.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey index is considered a bellwether of the manufacturing sector which has been a key strength in the economic recovery.
It was the first time the index fell below zero since July 2009, the month after the worst recession in decades was officially declared over.
The sharp 27-point decline surprised analysts, who had forecast on average a slip to a positive 11.7-point reading.
The new orders index plummeted to minus 24.4 points, from positive 12.9 points in October.
I have some shocking economic predictions:
1. The housing bubble is not completely burst.
2. The Fed is killing the value of the dollar. Expect more inflation.
3. More jobs will be lost…and right around the holidays.
4. As Obamacare kicks in, more businesses will lay off workers.
5. More people will default on homes as basic necessities like heating oil, gas, food, clothing go up in price.
6. When demand goes down because cost goes up, more jobs will be lost.
7. Basically, we're screwed.
And the only people who will be shocked will be economists who seem utterly ignorant of human behavior.
P.S. I have been predicting rebound inflation and misery for a year, a friend pointed out. True. It's just coming a few months later than I expected. But I did expect it.
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