John Bolton is banging the drums of war in the name of Israel. said today on Fox News, that the moment Russia starts loading the nuclear fuel into a Iranian reactor scheduled for August 21, Israel's window of opportunity to attack the Iranian weapons program closes.
"Once it's close to the reactor ... the risk is when the reactor is attacked, there will be a release of radiation into the air," Bolton told FoxNews.com. "It's most unlikely that they would act militarily after fuel rods are loaded."
Earlier Tuesday, Bolton told Fox Business Network the Israelis will have to move in the "next eight days" if they want to attack the Bushehr facility -- a reference to the window between when the start-up was announced last week and the loading date. Bolton said Tuesday that the date has fluctuated, but he described the start-up as the ultimate deadline.
"What this does is give Iran a second route to nuclear weapons in addition to enriched uranium," Bolton said. "It's a very, very huge victory for Iran."The only problem with Bolton's analysis is that it is wrong, it does not close the window to an attack. First of all if Israel were to attack within the next four days there would be no element of surprise hurting the chance of the actions success. Israel always says the same thing when it comes to dealing with threats, "We will handle it at a time of our choosing." Israel will not attack until they feel that there is an imminent threat of Iran gaining a nuclear weapon and when Israel feels that its military abilities are at its highest.
The Bushehr reactor would probably be a tertiary target at best, they would probably go after where the nuclear fuel is refined, the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, the formerly secret enrichment site at Qom, after that would be the "brain center" of the Iranian operations, the nuclear-research center at Esfahan,
How am I so sure that Israel does not believe that time is now? There is too much noise, the Bolton push comes right after much discussed Jeffry Goldberg article claiming that Israel is nearing the point of no return about Iranian nuclear weapons (he says it will happen before next spring).
Israel just doesn't work that way, they do not announce their intentions in the press, or to former UN Ambassadors.
It doesn't broadcast or leak operations like this before they happen. The attack on Iran's nuclear plant in 1981 was a total surprise, so was the destruction of the North Korean reactor in the middle of the Syrian desert. Heck when the reactor in Syria was destroyed it took a year to figure out what was destroyed and how it happened.
The more you see news reports starting that "sources say" or claims such as Israel's window is about to close, the less likely that something is going to happen soon. Also don't believe reports about Israel "asking the US for permission." When your very existence is in jeopardy, it is much easier to say you are sorry than asking for permission. If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear program it will be doing so at a time of its own choosing, and she won't be announcing it four days before it's planned to happen in the media.
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