Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website:
In the week ending Oct. 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 462,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 449,000. The 4-week moving average was 459,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average of 456,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Oct. 2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 2 was 4,399,000, a decrease of 112,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,511,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,488,500, a decrease of 34,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,523,000.
Without the revision to last week's data, the actual increase would have been 17,000. Not much of a revision, but still worthy of note.
The last time the adjusted jobless claims increased was for the week ending August 14. At the time, the four week moving average of new claims was 482,500. With this week's release, the four week moving average is 459,000 so before today, the trend was in the right direction. One point doesn't make a trend, so it will be interesting to see how the numbers fall in the coming weeks.
The moving average is still stubbornly stuck in a range between 450,000 and 500,000. The effect of the decennial Census has now completely ebbed, and last week's payroll figures showed that state and local governments are cutting jobs. From this point forward, it will be up to a very skittish, very uncertain private sector to create jobs through economic expansion.
This is not going to happen at any pace that significantly improves the labor market before the end of the calendar year. This is troubling, because the third quarter is the most important for the retail sector and consumer spending. If jobs are scarce, consumers will not be in a big-spending mood for the Holiday Season.
UPDATE: Reuters trots out a new twist on their favorite term. The figures weren't unexpected, you see. They were merely "higher than expected."
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